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D@dalos > Faqja hyrėse > Web 2.0 > Shoqėria 2.0 > Urtėsia e masės

 



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Temat e librit metodik online rreth Web 2.0:

Hyrje

Ēfarė ėshtė Web 2.0?

Tė mėsuarit 2.0

Politika 2.0

Ekonomia 2.0

Shoqėria 2.0

 Rreziqet e Web 2.0

 Rrjetet sociale

 Urtėsia e masės

 Digital Natives
 


Urtėsia e masės

Libri i shndėrruar rrufeshėm nė njė vepėr standard "The Wisdom of Crowds" nga James Surowieckinis nis me njė histori tė Anglisė sė vitit 1906:

Shkencėtari Francis Galton vizitoi West of England Fat Stock and Poultry Exhibition nė Plymouth. Atje organizohej ēdo vit njė konkurs, i cili konsistonte nė gjetjen e peshės sė njė demi. Gjithkush mund tė merrte pjesė: si ato pak ekspertė, siē mund tė ishin kasapėt dhe tregtarėt e gjedhėve, ashtu edhe vizitorėt e thjeshtė e tė shumtė tė panairit.

Sikurse shumica e njerėzve, para dhe pas tij ,edhe Galton mendonte, qė vlerėsimi mesatar i njė grupi tė tillė, i cili pėrbėhej kryesisht nga njerėz qė nuk ia kishin idenė, do tė pasqyronte vetėm njė gjė, budallallėkun e masės. Pikėrisht kėtė kėrkonte tė dėshmonte ai, ndaj edhe iu lut organizatorėve, ta linin tė shihte tė gjitha vlerėsimet e dhėna – nė vitin 1906 nė konkurs morėn pjesė 787 persona.

Nga kėto 787 vlerėsime ai mori nė shqyrtim mesataren si  "urtėsi kolektive" e grupit. Pėr habinė e tij vuri re, se grupi kishte vlerėsuar peshėn e demit me 1197 pfund, duke dhėnė kėshtu njė vlerė mė tė mirė se sa ajo e mė tė mirit ndėr njohėsit invidualė. Nė fakt pesha e matur e demit kishte qenė 1198 pfund!

"Galton undoubtedly thought that the average guess of the group would be way off the mark. After all, mix a few very smart people with some mediocre people and a lot of dumb people, and it seems likely you’d end up with a dumb answer. But Galton was wrong." (fq. XIII)




[Sir Francis Galton, 1822-1911]



Tesa mė e rėndėsishme e "The Wisdom of Crowds"



Kjo histori e udhėhoqi Surowiecki-n drejt tezės mė tė rėndėsishme tė librit tė tij: Vlerėsimi nė dukje intuitivisht i saktė dhėnė prej shumė filozofėve qė prej kohės sė Aristotelit, prej shkencėtarėve dhe arsyes sė shėndoshė njerėzore, sipas tė cilit masa nuk ia ka idenė, ėshtė mė sė paku i njėanshėm ose thjesht i gabuar. Por tė nxjerrėsh qė kėtej konkluzionin,qė masa ka gjithmonė tė drejtė, sic ndodh shpesh tė shohim tė bėhet duke iu referuar botimit tė Surowiecki-t "Wisdom of Crowds", do tė ishte naive dhe nuk ėshtė e drejtė kundrejt autorit tė librit. Nė pjesė tė ndryshme ai i formulon me mė shumė kujdes tezat e tij:

"...under the right circumstances, groups are remarkably intelligent, and are often smarter than the smartest people in them. (…) Even if most of the people within a group are not especially well-informed or rational, it can still reach a collectively wise decision." (fq. XIIIf.)

"With most things, the average is mediocrity. With decision making, it’s often excellence." (fq. 11)

"The idea of the wisdom of crowds is not that a group will always give you the right answer but that on average it will consistently come up with a better answer than any individual could provide." (fq. 235)

"The Wisdom of Crowds is not an argument against experts, but against our excessive faith in the single individual decision maker." (fq. 277)

Vendimtare kėtu janė, sipas Surowiecki-t,  ato qė ai i quan "right circumstances", pra pyetja se pėr ēfarė vendimesh bėhet fjalė dhe pyetja rreth pėrbėrjes dhe karakteristikave e grupit, qė do tė duhet tė marrė vendimet. Pikėrisht analizės sė kėtyre dy aspekteve u kushtohet edhe libri. Nėse dihet paraprakisht, se nė ē'kushte cili lloj grupi mund tė marrė vendime tė urta, atėherė kjo „urtėsi e masės“ mund tė shfrytėzohet, qoftė nė sektorin e politikės ashtu edhe pėr qėllime ekonomike apo edhe tė njė natyre tjetėr. Por cilat janė kėto kushte?



Kushtet pėr „Urtėsinė e masės“

larmia

pavarėsia

decentralizmi


"... conditions that are necessary for the crowd to be wise: diversity, independence, and a particular kind of decentralization" (`fq. XVIII, theksim i autorit)

"Diversity and independence are important because the best collective decisions are the product of disagreement and contest, not consensus or compromise." (fq. XIX)

"The smartest groups … are made up of people with diverse perspectives who are able to stay independent of each other." (fq. 41)

"The idea of the wisdom of crowds also takes decentralization as a given and a good, since it implies that if you set a crowd of self-interested, independent people to work in a decentralized way on the same problem, instead of trying to direct their efforts from the top down, their collective solution is likely to be better than any other solution you could come up with." (fq. 70)

"... a decentralized system can only produce genuinely intelligent results if there’s a means of aggregating the information of everyone in the system." (fq. 74)

"We know that the crowds that make the best collective judgments are crowds where there’s a wide range of opinions and diverse sources of information, where people’s biases can cancel themselves out, rather than reinforcing each other." (fq. 227)

"Groups are only smart when there is a balance between the information that everyone in the group shares and the information that each of the members of the group holds privately. It’s the combination of all those pieces of independent information, some of them right, some of them wrong, that keeps the group wise." (fq. 255/56)



Shmbull: Bursa

Urtėsia kolektive e pjesėmarrėsve tė tregut, por edhe goditjet dhe pėrplasjet


Bursa ėshtė njė rast testimi interesant dhe tė rėndėsishėm pėr vendimmarrjen kolektive. Surowiecki pėrdor reagimin e bursės ndaj fatkeqsisė sė Challenger nė vitin 1986, si shembull pėr urtėsinė kolektive tė kėtij mekanizmi tė veēantė (tė tregut). Megjithėse shkaqet e fatkeqsisė ishin tė panjohura, ra veēanėrisht kursi i bursės sė asaj firme, e cila pas analizash tė gjata e tė vėshtira rezultoi, se ishte arsyeja kryesore e fatkeqsisė. Kjo konfirmon tezėn e autorit, sipas sė cilės duhet tė pėrmbushen kushte tė caktuara, qė njė grup i caktuar tė marrė vendime tė urta:

"The market was smart that day because it satisfied the four conditions that characterize wise crowds: diversity of opinion (each person should have some private information, even if it’s just an eccentric interpretation of the known facts), independence (people’s opinions are not determined by the opinions of those around them), decentralization (people are able to specialize and draw on local knowledge), and aggregation (some mechanism exists for turning private judgments into a collective decision)." fq. 10)

Nga ana tjetėr nė patologjitė e tregut tė bursės – goditjet e spekullimeve apo pėrplasjet nė bursė – mund tė shihet mjaft mirė, se ēfarė ndodh, kur kushtet e pėrmendura nuk plotėsohen:

"Bubbles and crashes are textbook examples of collective decision making gone wrong. In a bubble, all of the conditions that make groups intelligent – independence, diversity, private judgment – disappear." (fq. 244)

"During a bubble, (…) a market (…) turns into a mob." (fq. 256)




Kundėrshtitė


Bernard Baruch: "Anyone taken as an individual is tolerably sensible and reasonable – as a member of a crowd, he at once becomes a blockhead."


Henry David Thoreau: "The mass never comes up to the standard of its best member, but on the contrary degrades itself to a level with the lowest."


Thomas Carlyle: "I do not believe in the collective wisdom of individual ignorance."



Me Web 2.0 vihet nė dispozicion njė platformė, e cila lejon pėrdorimin e „urtėsisė sė masės“ pėr tė gjitha fushat e imagjinuara. Por ende duhen kapėrcyer disa vėshtirėsi dhe kundėrshti, sikurse e tregojnė edhe diskutimet e gjata rreth Wikipedia-s.

"In the popular imagination, groups tend to make people either dumb or crazy, or both." (fq. XV)

"One of the striking things about the wisdom of crowds is that even though its effects are all around us, it’s easy to miss, and, even when it’s seen, it can be hard to accept." (fq. XIV)

"... we feel the need to ‘chase the expert’ (...). We should stop hunting and ask the crowd." (fq. XV)

Shoqėria jonė, e mėsuar t'i besojė shkencės dhe para sė gjithash ekspertėve, anashkalon me lehtėsi tezėn e konfirmuar shumėfish, qė edhe ekspertėt bėjnė gabime. Nėse do tė jenė vetėm ata marrėsit e vendimeve, atėherė kjo mund tė ketė pasoja katastrofale. Prej kėtej rrjedh njė argument tjetėr i rėndėsishėm pro pėrdorimit tė urtėsisė kolektive, sa herė qė ėshtė e mundur dhe e arsyeshme, sikurse thekson edhe Surowiecki:

"To me, that’s one of the (and maybe the) great virtues of collective decision making: it doesn’t matter when an individual makes a mistake. As long as the group is diverse and independent enough, the errors people make effectively cancel themselves out, leaving you with the knowledge that the group has." (fq. 278)

[Tė gjitha citatet shkėputur nga: James Surowiecki (2005), The Wisdom of Crowds, New York]



Nė njė TED Talk tė vitit 2005 James Surowieck, duke u nisur nga disa postime nė blog rreth temės sė Tsunamit tė njė viti mė parė dhe mbi bazėn e Blogosferės, bėn njė pėrmbledhje tė ideve bazė tė librit tė tij  "The Wisdom of Crowds" zusammen.




Koncepte tė afėrta




 



Shpesh citohet Tim O’Reilly me fjalinė: "Pėrdorimi i inteligjencės kolektive ėshtė parimi qendror i erės sė Web 2.0“. Pa dyshim urtėsia e masės bėn pjesė nė idetė bazė tė botės sė Web 2.0. Autorė tė ndryshėm, nisur qė kėtej, kanė zhvilluar koncepte tė ndryshme, tė cilat ndėrvaren ngushtė me njėra-tjetrėn. Mes kėtyre koncepteve ka mbivendosje, pa u kristalizuar deri mė tani njė terminologji e qartė. Mė tė rėndėsishmet prej tyre janė:

Crowdsourcing (Jeff Howe)

"Once upon a time there were producers and consumers. Their roles were static and well defined. But thanks to the Internet and the falling cost of the silicon chip, the line between producer and consumer has begun to blur. Amateurs provide the crowdsourcing engine with fuel, and the open source software movement provided it with a blueprint. But it's the widespread availability of the means of production that empower the crowd to take part in a process long dominated by companies. As a result, the 'consumer', as traditionally conceived, is becoming an antiquated concept. Media - publishing, filmmaking, photography, and music - comprise the vanguard in this movement (...). And these same dynamics are beginning to affect other fields as well."

[Jeff Howe (2009), Crowdsourcing. Why the Power of the Crowd is Driving the Future of Business, New York, fq. 71f.]


Social Production (Yochai Benkler)

Nė librin e tij  "The wealth of Networks: How Social Production Transforms Markets and Freedom" (2006) Benkler - duke u nisur nga rastet studimore (Google, Wikipedia, Open Source Software etj.)- pėrshkruan  njė model tė ri ekonomik, tė cilin e quan "social production" ("collaborations among individuals that are organized without markets or managerial hierarchies"). Ky koncept ėshtė nė pjesėn mė tė madhe sinonim me "crowdsourcing".


Wikinomics (Don Tapscott / Anthony D. Williams)

Edhe mė shumė se  nė rastin e Benkler dhe Howe, koncepti "Wikinomics" i referohet sektorit tė ekonomisė, arsye pėr tė cilėn ne e prezantojmė atė hollėsisht nė kapitullin Wirtschaft 2.0.


Cult of the Amateur (Andrew Keen)

Njė term kyē me njė orientim krejt tė ndryshėm, qė e ka burimin nga libri i Keens "The Cult of the Amateur: How Today's Internet is Killing Our Culture" (2007). Ata qė interesohen pėr kėtė kritikė fondamentale tė Web 2.0, rekomandohen tė ndjekin debatin mes Andrew Keen dhe David Weinberger, i cili ėshtė dokumentuar nė publikimin online tė Wall Street Journal ..."The Good, the Bad, and the Web 2.0".  Libra tė tjerė kritikė ndaj Web 2.0 janė p.sh. Manifesti i pionierit tė  internetit Jaron Lanier "You Are Not a Gadget. A Manifesto" (New York 2010) ose libri i Markus Reiters "Dumm 3.0: Si e kėrcėnojnė kulturėn tonė Twitter, Blogs dhe Networks" (Gütersloh 2010). Tė gjitha rekomandimet tona pėr literaturė tė mėtejshme i gjeni kėtu...

Videoja e mėposhtme tregon nė 3 minuta idenė bazė tė "Crowdsourcing" pėrkatėsisht tė "Mass Collaboration" pėrkatėsisht tė "Wisdom of Crowds" :




[Autorėt: Dr. Ragnar Müller / Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Schumann]

 

 

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